近期光伏產(chǎn)品，從多晶硅到組件均出現(xiàn)幅度不等的下跌,，部分產(chǎn)品從最高點到現(xiàn)在下跌幅度超過30%,，對相關(guān)生產(chǎn)企業(yè)形成巨大的壓力。

    下跌原因：供需失衡導(dǎo)致的階段性景氣下滑

    首先,，價格下跌是太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)具備成本優(yōu)勢的必經(jīng)之路,；

    在這個前提下，要認識到這次價格下跌不是簡單的短期波動,，而是一輪產(chǎn)業(yè)景氣周期的下行,，是前兩年大量產(chǎn)能逐漸釋放與需求增速下降雙重作用導(dǎo)致的供需失衡，是階段性的價格下跌,；

    這輪產(chǎn)業(yè)景氣開始于2009年中期,，其觸發(fā)因素是金融危機之后各企業(yè)一次性提取多晶硅跌價損失，之后景氣一路上揚,，到去年的下半年達到巔峰,，其觸發(fā)因素是意大利與德國市場的超預(yù)期；

    之后景氣開始維持并慢慢下滑,，其實組件在年初銷售已經(jīng)開始有些困難,，遠不似去年下半年的火熱，這是行業(yè)開始轉(zhuǎn)冷的跡象,，之后組件價格開始下跌,，然后是電池，然后是硅片,，最后是剛剛開始下跌的多晶硅,。

    還能跌多少、多久：硅片與電池最壞的日子快過去了,，反彈言之尚早

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title="光伏產(chǎn)品">光伏產(chǎn)品的下跌呈梯度,，不會多晶硅、硅片,、電池,、組件同時開跌或者同時止跌回升；.上一輪的價格下跌是由于金融危機帶來的，其觸發(fā)因素是嚴重高估的多晶硅價格雪崩,，領(lǐng)跌是多晶硅,，由成本下降和信貸萎縮帶來的需求下降；而今年這輪的下跌是由于下游需求無法承接如此巨大的上游產(chǎn)能,，領(lǐng)跌是距離市場最近的組件,；.幅度方面，目前根據(jù)歐洲的市場情況和現(xiàn)在的價格以及企業(yè)的盈利水平,，我們判斷硅片,、電池的價格應(yīng)該跌至行業(yè)平均凈利潤水平；時間方面,，我們判斷半年應(yīng)該結(jié)束,，但之前應(yīng)該要經(jīng)歷一波產(chǎn)能過剩帶來的超跌。

    后面會怎樣：多晶硅仍有較大下跌空間,、硅片電池價格仍將徘徊向下

    從年初以來我們在路演以及溝通中反復(fù)強調(diào)的是規(guī)避多晶硅,、硅片與電池,。從目前來看,，盡管部分產(chǎn)品的價格下跌幅度不小，但說止跌可能一個月內(nèi)能看到,，但景氣回升我們的判斷是需要到四季度前后,；

    目前多晶硅價格并未大幅下降，我們判斷,，在成本不斷下降和下游硅片盈利急劇萎縮的雙重壓力下,，多晶硅將有較大幅度的下降，以年初最高的70萬人民幣/噸為基準(zhǔn),，下跌幅度可能接近40%,，市場價后面可能要到40萬上下。

    投資策略：關(guān)注價跌量增的時點,、持續(xù)看好增量不降價的子行業(yè)

    在目前價格下跌趨勢尚未結(jié)束的情況下,，我們持續(xù)去年年底以來的觀點，繼續(xù)建議對多晶硅,、硅片,、電池這幾個主流產(chǎn)品觀望；

    但這輪價格暴跌之后,，我們一直期待的光伏平價就將來到,，所以強烈建議大家關(guān)注價格下跌帶來IRR提高、出貨量增加的時點,，這將是歷史性的投資機會,；

    雖行業(yè)普遍慘淡，但量增價不減的子行業(yè)仍值得看好，如銀漿,、逆變器,。