近期光伏產(chǎn)品,，從多晶硅到組件均出現(xiàn)幅度不等的下跌,，部分產(chǎn)品從最高點(diǎn)到現(xiàn)在下跌幅度超過(guò)30%,，對(duì)相關(guān)生產(chǎn)企業(yè)形成巨大的壓力。

    下跌原因：供需失衡導(dǎo)致的階段性景氣下滑

    首先,，價(jià)格下跌是太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)具備成本優(yōu)勢(shì)的必經(jīng)之路,；

    在這個(gè)前提下，要認(rèn)識(shí)到這次價(jià)格下跌不是簡(jiǎn)單的短期波動(dòng)，而是一輪產(chǎn)業(yè)景氣周期的下行,，是前兩年大量產(chǎn)能逐漸釋放與需求增速下降雙重作用導(dǎo)致的供需失衡，是階段性的價(jià)格下跌,；

    這輪產(chǎn)業(yè)景氣開(kāi)始于2009年中期,，其觸發(fā)因素是金融危機(jī)之后各企業(yè)一次性提取多晶硅跌價(jià)損失，之后景氣一路上揚(yáng),，到去年的下半年達(dá)到巔峰,，其觸發(fā)因素是意大利與德國(guó)市場(chǎng)的超預(yù)期；

    之后景氣開(kāi)始維持并慢慢下滑,，其實(shí)組件在年初銷售已經(jīng)開(kāi)始有些困難,，遠(yuǎn)不似去年下半年的火熱，這是行業(yè)開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)冷的跡象,，之后組件價(jià)格開(kāi)始下跌,，然后是電池，然后是硅片,，最后是剛剛開(kāi)始下跌的多晶硅,。

    還能跌多少、多久：硅片與電池最壞的日子快過(guò)去了,，反彈言之尚早

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title="光伏產(chǎn)品">光伏產(chǎn)品的下跌呈梯度,，不會(huì)多晶硅、硅片,、電池,、組件同時(shí)開(kāi)跌或者同時(shí)止跌回升；.上一輪的價(jià)格下跌是由于金融危機(jī)帶來(lái)的,，其觸發(fā)因素是嚴(yán)重高估的多晶硅價(jià)格雪崩,，領(lǐng)跌是多晶硅，由成本下降和信貸萎縮帶來(lái)的需求下降,；而今年這輪的下跌是由于下游需求無(wú)法承接如此巨大的上游產(chǎn)能,，領(lǐng)跌是距離市場(chǎng)最近的組件；.幅度方面,，目前根據(jù)歐洲的市場(chǎng)情況和現(xiàn)在的價(jià)格以及企業(yè)的盈利水平,，我們判斷硅片、電池的價(jià)格應(yīng)該跌至行業(yè)平均凈利潤(rùn)水平,；時(shí)間方面,，我們判斷半年應(yīng)該結(jié)束，但之前應(yīng)該要經(jīng)歷一波產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩帶來(lái)的超跌,。

    后面會(huì)怎樣：多晶硅仍有較大下跌空間,、硅片電池價(jià)格仍將徘徊向下

    從年初以來(lái)我們?cè)诼费菀约皽贤ㄖ蟹磸?fù)強(qiáng)調(diào)的是規(guī)避多晶硅、硅片與電池。從目前來(lái)看,，盡管部分產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格下跌幅度不小,，但說(shuō)止跌可能一個(gè)月內(nèi)能看到，但景氣回升我們的判斷是需要到四季度前后,；

    目前多晶硅價(jià)格并未大幅下降,，我們判斷，在成本不斷下降和下游硅片盈利急劇萎縮的雙重壓力下,，多晶硅將有較大幅度的下降,，以年初最高的70萬(wàn)人民幣/噸為基準(zhǔn)，下跌幅度可能接近40%,，市場(chǎng)價(jià)后面可能要到40萬(wàn)上下,。

    投資策略：關(guān)注價(jià)跌量增的時(shí)點(diǎn)、持續(xù)看好增量不降價(jià)的子行業(yè)

    在目前價(jià)格下跌趨勢(shì)尚未結(jié)束的情況下,，我們持續(xù)去年年底以來(lái)的觀點(diǎn),，繼續(xù)建議對(duì)多晶硅、硅片,、電池這幾個(gè)主流產(chǎn)品觀望,；

    但這輪價(jià)格暴跌之后，我們一直期待的光伏平價(jià)就將來(lái)到,，所以強(qiáng)烈建議大家關(guān)注價(jià)格下跌帶來(lái)IRR提高,、出貨量增加的時(shí)點(diǎn)，這將是歷史性的投資機(jī)會(huì),；

    雖行業(yè)普遍慘淡,，但量增價(jià)不減的子行業(yè)仍值得看好，如銀漿,、逆變器,。