幾天前，ARM首席執(zhí)行官Warren East在財(cái)報(bào)會(huì)表示，董事會(huì)與股東長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直想買AMD,，由于后者目前正重估戰(zhàn)略，眼下機(jī)會(huì)大增,。

 

要在3年前,，這定會(huì)引來(lái)嘲笑。因?yàn)?，?dāng)時(shí)ARM與AMD一個(gè)身在通信市場(chǎng),，一個(gè)身在PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC領(lǐng)域，誰(shuí)也不買誰(shuí)的賬。

 

那Warren East是借機(jī)給投資人講故事嗎,？要知道，一個(gè)多月來(lái),，ARM股價(jià)大幅飆升,。

 

筆者認(rèn)為，ARM買下AMD可能未必成行,，人們?cè)谂u(píng)英特爾移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)戰(zhàn)略受困于處理器功耗難題時(shí),，可能對(duì)ARM移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)現(xiàn)有優(yōu)勢(shì)地位過(guò)于樂(lè)觀了?；蛘哒f(shuō),，他的話，變相傳達(dá)的是ARM的一種危機(jī)感,。面對(duì)英特爾,、IPS" title="MIPS">MIPS等強(qiáng)敵，它不能等著對(duì)手突破低功耗技術(shù)障礙,，必須盡快拓展新出路,。

 

過(guò)去幾年，ARM在物理IP,、工具等方面做了垂直整合,，但在64位處理器技術(shù)及高主頻方面并未顯出優(yōu)勢(shì)，目前還缺乏主流操作系統(tǒng)微軟的更多支持,。

 

上述這些是AMD的強(qiáng)項(xiàng),。AMD雖被英特爾長(zhǎng)期壓制，但卻是PC產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈最大的制衡力量,。業(yè)內(nèi)甚至認(rèn)為,，AMD之所以落后英特爾，非技術(shù)所致,，而是商業(yè)與運(yùn)營(yíng)不力,。

 

ARM如能買下AMD，既能掌控手機(jī)與平板產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,，也能滲透至少20%~30%的PC市場(chǎng),，等于說(shuō)通吃產(chǎn)業(yè)上游了。

 

但這合理的商業(yè)邏輯卻不大可行,。業(yè)內(nèi)有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,，主要或許是財(cái)力不夠，ARM年?duì)I收僅6億美元左右,，屬于“小而美”企業(yè),，AMD則是個(gè)大塊頭。但筆者認(rèn)為，上述ARM收購(gòu)AMD不可行并不在于財(cái)務(wù)問(wèn)題——依ARM地位,，獲得財(cái)務(wù)杠桿不難——而最重要的是各自的模式：ARM為授權(quán)模式,，即將架構(gòu)與專利授權(quán)給許多處理器設(shè)計(jì)企業(yè)，而英特爾則是自己設(shè)計(jì)處理器,；ARM收購(gòu)AMD,，等于跟自己原合作伙伴打架。另一方面,，AMD架構(gòu)來(lái)自英特爾,，專利權(quán)自然掌握在英特爾手中，ARM收購(gòu)AMD,，等于為英特爾打工,。

 

筆者去年曾分析過(guò)英特爾收購(gòu)ARM不具可行性，理由異曲同工,。如果成真,，在ARM授權(quán)模式下生活的許多處理器企業(yè)將直面生死——除非英特爾改變商業(yè)模式，走向開(kāi)放授權(quán),，但短期內(nèi)幾乎看不到任何希望,。截至目前，英特爾架構(gòu)的處理器企業(yè)僅4家,。

 

ARM與AMD之間是否就沒(méi)了變通合作機(jī)會(huì),？當(dāng)然有，而且同樣會(huì)讓英特爾緊張,。那就是AMD主動(dòng)出擊,，既沿用英特爾架構(gòu)，也購(gòu)買ARM授權(quán),。前者用來(lái)打擊英特爾PC產(chǎn)業(yè),，后者用來(lái)拓展智能手機(jī)與平板市場(chǎng)。由于AMD2009年已淡化制造業(yè),，拋棄了類似英特爾的IDM模式,，這并不妨害現(xiàn)有運(yùn)營(yíng)模式。

 

因此,，筆者認(rèn)為,，與其說(shuō)是收購(gòu)，不如說(shuō)是合作與融合,。前不久,，AMD已經(jīng)傳出或?qū)①?gòu)買ARM授權(quán)，以拓展平板市場(chǎng),。事實(shí)上,，AMD的顯示處理器中,，早有ARM技術(shù)。

 

如果“ARM+AMD”的雙A合作成真,，并走向深入,，借助AMD的處理器設(shè)計(jì)力量、基于微軟系統(tǒng)的方案以及PC產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,，有望快速形成真正顛覆手機(jī)與PC產(chǎn)業(yè)的核心力量,。事實(shí)上，英特爾已經(jīng)采用相像的動(dòng)作,。去年它收購(gòu)了英飛凌的無(wú)線業(yè)務(wù)，而后者的核心產(chǎn)品正是基于ARM的架構(gòu),。

 

大概會(huì)有人問(wèn),，蘋果iPad已在手機(jī)與PC交融地帶讓人驚奇，還有什么值得期待的呢,？那不過(guò)是一種過(guò)渡形態(tài),，其中的處理器基于ARM架構(gòu)，連蘋果自身都承認(rèn)并非最理想的產(chǎn)品,?？雌饋?lái)，一個(gè)真正的產(chǎn)業(yè)融合時(shí)代還沒(méi)有到來(lái),，到時(shí)候誰(shuí)能勝出,，要看現(xiàn)在誰(shuí)能將對(duì)立陣營(yíng)的資源融合得更快。