《電子技術(shù)應(yīng)用》
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謹(jǐn)防TD-LTE重走TD老路:僅憑中國(guó)市場(chǎng)規(guī)難支撐

2012-02-09
作者:馬曉芳
來(lái)源:CCTIME
關(guān)鍵詞: TD-LTE TD

國(guó)際電信聯(lián)盟(ITU)一則決議似乎被春節(jié)氣氛給遮了。那就是4G標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的確定,。

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title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE。其中,,IEEE 802.16m正是WiMax的后續(xù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),。

TD-LTE是基于中國(guó)自主知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)TD-SCDMA的4G技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),經(jīng)政府,、運(yùn)營(yíng)商,、設(shè)備商等多年努力終于躋身4G標(biāo)準(zhǔn)行列。2011年初,,中移動(dòng)已在廣州,、上海、杭州等6城進(jìn)行規(guī)模技術(shù)試驗(yàn),,去年底開(kāi)始二期試驗(yàn),。中移動(dòng)介紹,按目前結(jié)果,,TD-LTE關(guān)鍵技術(shù)和性能指標(biāo)基本符合理論預(yù)期,,技術(shù)成熟可用,與LTE FDD商用網(wǎng)絡(luò)性能相當(dāng),。

公開(kāi)場(chǎng)合,,中移動(dòng)高管言必稱(chēng)TD-LTE對(duì)國(guó)際運(yùn)營(yíng)商具有吸引力,TD-LTE在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)紅紅火火,。

不過(guò),,實(shí)際上,TD-LTE商用化進(jìn)程和市場(chǎng)規(guī)模嚴(yán)重落后于LTE FDD,。截至去年底,,全球51個(gè)LTE商用網(wǎng)絡(luò)中,LTE FDD占46個(gè),,且Verizon,、AT&T等巨頭參與其中,Verizon甚至已有150萬(wàn)智能手機(jī)用戶(hù),。而TD-LTE僅5個(gè)商用網(wǎng)絡(luò),,運(yùn)營(yíng)商規(guī)模較小,商用網(wǎng)絡(luò)建設(shè)明顯落后,。目前許多國(guó)際知名企業(yè)更傾向于FDD,。

中國(guó)自主創(chuàng)新能走多遠(yuǎn),?3G時(shí)代,,基于FDD的WCDMA和CDMA2000技術(shù)一直統(tǒng)領(lǐng)3G產(chǎn)業(yè),,而源于中國(guó)的TD-SCMDA因商用進(jìn)程晚、產(chǎn)業(yè)能力薄弱,,目前已不太可能在全球大規(guī)模發(fā)展,。

TD-LTE被認(rèn)為是中國(guó)首次有機(jī)會(huì)在全球市場(chǎng)實(shí)現(xiàn)超越的寄托。不過(guò),,商用進(jìn)程速度更快的LTE FDD,、卷土重來(lái)的WiMax都在爭(zhēng)奪全球市場(chǎng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)資源。

TD-LTE的時(shí)間已不多,。如果發(fā)展不力,,TD-LTE很可能成為第二個(gè)TD-SCDMA。無(wú)論有關(guān)部門(mén)與機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為它多么成功,,但消費(fèi)者的認(rèn)知有較大反差,。歸根結(jié)底,這仍只是一個(gè)難以走出國(guó)門(mén)的“中國(guó)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)”,,憑借中國(guó)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模艱難支撐產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,。

如果沒(méi)有4G標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與中國(guó)市場(chǎng)概念,TD-LTE恐怕很難吸引設(shè)備商,、芯片商及其他海外巨頭投身進(jìn)來(lái),。但最終它的未來(lái)也很有可能是“自?shī)首詷?lè)”,之前的積累與付出都將化為泡影,。而更嚴(yán)重的是,,那些投入巨資、緊密跟隨的本土相關(guān)企業(yè)可能還會(huì)心痛一次,。

筆者獲悉,,相關(guān)部門(mén)對(duì)TD-LTE也有一定顧慮。比如,,是否可能造成TD-SCDMA投資浪費(fèi),?在3G發(fā)展不久,上馬4G有無(wú)必要,?還有,,現(xiàn)有運(yùn)營(yíng)商市場(chǎng)是否再被打破,以致電信改革努力前功盡棄,?

市場(chǎng)機(jī)遇稍縱即逝,,如何權(quán)衡和取舍,這將考驗(yàn)相關(guān)部門(mén)與產(chǎn)業(yè)界的智慧,。

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