《電子技術(shù)應(yīng)用》
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計(jì)及MCMC方法的電網(wǎng)概率檢修計(jì)劃指標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型*
電子技術(shù)應(yīng)用 2023年10期
郭子強(qiáng),宋 濤,,郭 杰,,王 健,張?zhí)煲?/div>
(國網(wǎng)甘肅省電力公司蘭州供電公司,,甘肅 蘭州 730070)
摘要: 電力檢修是保證電力系統(tǒng)正常運(yùn)行的重要環(huán)節(jié),,有效的電力檢修計(jì)劃安排將大幅提升電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行的可靠性。通過設(shè)備狀態(tài)分級,、設(shè)備運(yùn)行年限,、設(shè)備運(yùn)行成本等指標(biāo)構(gòu)建概率檢修模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)檢修計(jì)劃的優(yōu)化,,采用概率檢修計(jì)劃優(yōu)化策略提高電網(wǎng)可靠性和經(jīng)濟(jì)性指標(biāo),,并在檢修模型采用馬爾可夫鏈-蒙特卡洛法用于提高模型準(zhǔn)確度。最后通過仿真對概率檢修模型與傳統(tǒng)檢修模型進(jìn)行分析比較,,在確定最優(yōu)檢修概率的同時(shí),,突顯了概率檢修模型的優(yōu)越性,為電力產(chǎn)業(yè)價(jià)值鏈體系中電力檢修環(huán)節(jié)的完善提供理論基礎(chǔ),。
中圖分類號:TM71 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼:A DOI: 10.16157/j.issn.0258-7998.234202
中文引用格式: 郭子強(qiáng),,宋濤,郭杰,,等. 計(jì)及MCMC方法的電網(wǎng)概率檢修計(jì)劃指標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型[J]. 電子技術(shù)應(yīng)用,,2023,49(10):15-22.
英文引用格式: Guo Ziqiang,,Song Tao,,Guo Jie,et al. Power grid probabilistic maintenance plan index optimization model with MCMC method[J]. Application of Electronic Technique,,2023,,49(10):15-22.
Power grid probabilistic maintenance plan index optimization model with MCMC method
Guo Ziqiang,,Song Tao,Guo Jie,,Wang Jian,,Zhang Tianyi
(Lanzhou Power Supply Company,State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company,,Lanzhou 730070,,China)
Abstract: Effective power maintenance schedule will significantly increase the reliability of power grid operation as a crucial component of assuring the normal operation of the power system. In order to achieve the optimization of the maintenance plan, a probabilistic maintenance model is created in this work using equipment condition categorization, equipment operation life, equipment operation cost, and other indicators. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is utilized in the maintenance model to increase model accuracy, and the probabilistic maintenance plan optimization strategy is employed to improve the reliability and economic indicators of the power grid. Finally, simulation is used to assess and compare the probabilistic maintenance model and the conventional maintenance model. The superiority of the probabilistic maintenance model, which offers a theoretical foundation for the enhancement of the power maintenance link in the power industry value chain system, is highlighted while determining the best maintenance probability.
Key words : probabilistic maintenance;status classification,;reliability,;economic;Markov Chain Monte Carlo method

0 引言

隨著電力系統(tǒng)的有力發(fā)展,,電力系統(tǒng)設(shè)備可靠性大幅提高,,經(jīng)濟(jì)性和可靠性并行成為目前電網(wǎng)發(fā)展的主要方向[1]。正確應(yīng)對電網(wǎng)可能出現(xiàn)的設(shè)備損毀問題,,合理安排檢修內(nèi)容,、制定檢修計(jì)劃成為保障電力系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的重要內(nèi)容[2-3]。

在信息技術(shù)以及物聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)的發(fā)展過程中,,電力智能化逐漸成為電力行業(yè)發(fā)展的重點(diǎn)方向,,目前的電力檢修研究內(nèi)容也集中于檢修輔助系統(tǒng)的開發(fā)[4]、電力設(shè)備狀態(tài)評價(jià)體系[5]以及故障檢測定位技術(shù)研究[6],。作為電力產(chǎn)業(yè)價(jià)值鏈中的重要一環(huán),,適當(dāng)?shù)碾娏z修計(jì)劃安排可以提升電網(wǎng)的供電可靠性以及電力用戶的滿意度,電力公司通過對設(shè)備的檢修延長設(shè)備的運(yùn)行年限,,降低電網(wǎng)因設(shè)備故障導(dǎo)致停運(yùn)的可能性,,從而降低電力公司的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,提升電力檢修環(huán)節(jié)在電力產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條中的價(jià)值創(chuàng)造,。從另一方面來說,,電網(wǎng)停止供電所導(dǎo)致的不僅是供電方的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,也會致使電力用戶的電力中斷,,從而帶來額外的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)損失[7],。



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作者信息:

郭子強(qiáng),宋 濤,,郭 杰,,王 健,張?zhí)煲?/p>

(國網(wǎng)甘肅省電力公司蘭州供電公司,,甘肅 蘭州 730070)


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