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一種基于時(shí)間序列的環(huán)控生保系統(tǒng)遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)方法
2020年信息技術(shù)與網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全第12期
潘點(diǎn)飛1,,胡 偉1,,周文興1,,張慧穎2,,唐 斌1,,羅亞斌1,鄭為閣1
1.中國(guó)航天員科研訓(xùn)練中心,,北京 100094,;2.北京跟蹤與通信技術(shù)研究所,北京100094
摘要: 為實(shí)現(xiàn)環(huán)控生保系統(tǒng)在軌故障預(yù)測(cè)與健康管理,,研究系統(tǒng)遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的時(shí)間序列信息,。通過(guò)預(yù)測(cè)關(guān)鍵遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的變化趨勢(shì),實(shí)現(xiàn)在故障出現(xiàn)之前對(duì)其識(shí)別,、預(yù)判,。結(jié)合環(huán)控生保系統(tǒng)遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的特點(diǎn),通過(guò)AIC與BIC相結(jié)合的方法確定預(yù)測(cè)模型,。運(yùn)用該模型對(duì)實(shí)際工程中遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)驗(yàn)證,,結(jié)果表明采用該方法對(duì)氧分壓數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行前向6點(diǎn)預(yù)測(cè),預(yù)測(cè)精度可達(dá)98.2%,,可為后續(xù)系統(tǒng)在軌故障預(yù)測(cè)與健康管理提供基礎(chǔ),。
中圖分類號(hào): V476.1
文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼: A
DOI: 10.19358/j.issn.2096-5133.2020.12.012
引用格式: 潘點(diǎn)飛,胡偉,,周文興,,等. 一種基于時(shí)間序列的環(huán)控生保系統(tǒng)遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)方法[J].信息技術(shù)與網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全,2020,,39(12):67-72.
A telemetry data prediction method of environmental control and life support system based on time series analysis
Pan Dianfei1,,Hu Wei1,Zhou Wenxing1,,Zhang Huiying2,,Tang Bin1,Luo Yabin1,,Zheng Weige1
1.China Astronaut Research and Training Center,,Beijing 100094,China,; 2.Beijing Institute of Tracking and Telecommunications Technology,,Beijing 100094,China
Abstract: In order to realize on orbit fault prediction and health management of environmental control and life support system(ECLSS), time series information of telemetry data is studied. By predicting the change trend of key telemetry data, the fault can be identified and predicted before it occurs. Combined with the characteristics of telemetry data of ECLSS, the prediction model is determined by combining AIC and BIC. The model is used to predict and verify the telemetry data in practical engineering. The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of this method can reach 98.2%when the oxygen partial pressure data is predicted forward by using this method, which can provide the basis for the subsequent system on orbit fault prediction and health management.
Key words : environmental control and life support system(ECLSS),;telemetry data; prediction,;fault prediction

0 引言

    當(dāng)前,我國(guó)載人航天工程已經(jīng)進(jìn)入航天員長(zhǎng)期駐留及進(jìn)行空間科學(xué)實(shí)驗(yàn)的空間站階段,,環(huán)控生保系統(tǒng)直接關(guān)系到航天員的生命健康,,要求對(duì)其運(yùn)行狀態(tài)監(jiān)測(cè)更加及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確,對(duì)其故障預(yù)判、診斷更加快速智能,。

    環(huán)控生保系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行狀態(tài)主要通過(guò)遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)獲得,,數(shù)據(jù)的變化與產(chǎn)品、功能狀態(tài)的變化息息相關(guān),。從遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)中識(shí)別,、提取關(guān)鍵信息是常用的航天器故障診斷方法。目前航天領(lǐng)域普遍采用二值邏輯型閾值比較方法進(jìn)行故障識(shí)別[1],,該方法雖然簡(jiǎn)單,、直觀,但是存在諸如閾值不易界定,、缺乏故障征兆識(shí)別能力,、故障診斷效率低等問(wèn)題,且未能充分利用遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)中包含的大量時(shí)域,、空域信息,,數(shù)據(jù)利用效率較低。

    本文提出一種基于時(shí)間序列的遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)方法,,能夠根據(jù)遙測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的歷史信息預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)一段時(shí)間的變化趨勢(shì),,在故障出現(xiàn)之前對(duì)其進(jìn)行識(shí)別、預(yù)判,,有效確保分系統(tǒng)的健康,、長(zhǎng)期工作,降低未來(lái)空間站環(huán)控生保分系統(tǒng)長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)行的維護(hù)成本,。




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作者信息:

潘點(diǎn)飛1,,胡  偉1,周文興1,,張慧穎2,,唐  斌1,羅亞斌1,,鄭為閣1

(1.中國(guó)航天員科研訓(xùn)練中心,,北京 100094;2.北京跟蹤與通信技術(shù)研究所,,北京100094)

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